Fig. 3

Example of contrasting groups’ method with data on theoretical false positives and theoretical false negatives. In this case, the authors of the study observed that one novice passed (observed false positive rate of 9.1%) and that no experts failed (observed false negative rate of 0.0%). The theoretical false positives and theoretical false negatives suggest that if the groups had been much larger, 2.7% of the novices would have passed the test and 6.4% of the experts would have failed the test